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Burnley v Chelsea, Premier League 2014–15

BurnleyBurnley

Arfield 14'

Final score 1 to 3

Expected goals 0.7 to 1.8

Full time

ChelseaChelsea

Costa 17'Schürrle 21'Ivanovic 34'

Win chances: Chelsea favored. Burnley win 21%, draw 22%, Chelsea win 57%.

What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Aug 18. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works

Expected goals

Expected goals, goals, and expected points, Burnley and Chelsea
BurnleyChelsea
0.71.8
1Goals3
0.62.1