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Arsenal v Southampton, Premier League 2016–17

ArsenalArsenal

Koscielny 29'Cazorla 90+4' penalty

Final score 2 to 1

Expected goals 1.9 to 0.7

Full time

SouthamptonSouthampton

Cech 18' (OG)

Win chances: Arsenal favored. Arsenal win 56%, draw 25%, Southampton win 19%.

What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Sep 10. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works

Expected goals

Expected goals, goals, and expected points, Arsenal and Southampton
ArsenalSouthampton
1.90.7
2Goals1
2.20.6