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Arsenal v Southampton, Premier League 2017–18

ArsenalArsenal

Aubameyang 28'Welbeck 38', 81'

Final score 3 to 2

Expected goals 1.3 to 1.9

Full time

SouthamptonSouthampton

Long 17'Austin 73'

Win chances: Arsenal favored. Arsenal win 64%, draw 22%, Southampton win 14%.

What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Apr 8. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works

Expected goals

Expected goals, goals, and expected points, Arsenal and Southampton
ArsenalSouthampton
1.31.9
3Goals2
1.01.8