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Manchester City v Arsenal, Premier League 2017–18

Man CityManchester City

De Bruyne 19'Agüero 50' penaltyJesus 74'

Final score 3 to 1

Expected goals 2.0 to 0.3

Full time

ArsenalArsenal

Lacazette 65'

Win chances: Man City favored. Man City win 69%, draw 17%, Arsenal win 14%.

What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Nov 5. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works

Expected goals

Expected goals, goals, and expected points, Man City and Arsenal
Man CityArsenal
2.00.3
3Goals1
2.50.3