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Stoke City v Arsenal, Premier League 2017–18

StokeStoke City

Jesé 47'

Final score 1 to 0

Expected goals 0.8 to 1.7

Full time

ArsenalArsenal

Win chances: Arsenal favored. Stoke win 31%, draw 26%, Arsenal win 43%.

What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Aug 19. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works

Expected goals

Expected goals, goals, and expected points, Stoke and Arsenal
StokeArsenal
0.81.7
1Goals0
0.72.0