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Arsenal v Southampton, Premier League 2020–21

ArsenalArsenal

Aubameyang 52'

Final score 1 to 1

Expected goals 0.8 to 1.2

Full time

SouthamptonSouthampton

Walcott 18'

Win chances: Arsenal favored. Arsenal win 41%, draw 26%, Southampton win 33%.

What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Dec 16. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works

Expected goals

Expected goals, goals, and expected points, Arsenal and Southampton
ArsenalSouthampton
0.81.2
1Goals1
1.01.7