Aston Villa v Burnley, Premier League 2025–26
Aston VillaAston Villa
Malen 25', 63'
Final score 2 to 1
Expected goals 1.7 to 0.3
BurnleyBurnley
Ugochukwu 78'
- Date Sunday, October 5, 2025
- Premier League 2025–26
What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Oct 5. It was not published before the match.
Win chances: Aston Villa favored. Aston Villa win 67%, draw 20%, Burnley win 13%.
What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Oct 5. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works
Expected goals
| Aston Villa | Burnley | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.7 | Expected goals. What each side's chances were worth, in goals, from our own model of each shot in the match's commentary. | 0.3 | ||
| 2 | Goals | 1 | ||
| 2.4 | Expected points. The points each side's chances were worth, on average. | 0.4 | ||