Aston Villa v Chelsea, Premier League 2025–26
Aston VillaAston Villa
Luiz 2'
Final score 1 to 4
Expected goals 0.6 to 2.2
ChelseaChelsea
Pedro 35', 45+6', 64'Palmer 55'
- Date Wednesday, March 4, 2026
- Premier League 2025–26
What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Mar 4. It was not published before the match.
Win chances: Chelsea favored. Aston Villa win 36%, draw 26%, Chelsea win 38%.
What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Mar 4. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works
Expected goals
| Aston Villa | Chelsea | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6 | Expected goals. What each side's chances were worth, in goals, from our own model of each shot in the match's commentary. | 2.2 | ||
| 1 | Goals | 4 | ||
| 0.5 | Expected points. The points each side's chances were worth, on average. | 2.4 | ||