Newcastle United v Leeds United, Premier League 2025–26
NewcastleNewcastle United
Barnes 36', 90+12'Joelinton 54'Guimarães 90+1' penalty
Final score 4 to 3
Expected goals 3.4 to 1.8
LeedsLeeds United
Aaronson 32', 79'Calvert-Lewin 45+5' penalty
- Date Wednesday, January 7, 2026
- Premier League 2025–26
What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Jan 7. It was not published before the match.
Win chances: Newcastle favored. Newcastle win 52%, draw 24%, Leeds win 24%.
What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Jan 7. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works
Expected goals
| Newcastle | Leeds | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Expected goals. What each side's chances were worth, in goals, from our own model of each shot in the match's commentary. | 1.8 | ||
| 4 | Goals | 3 | ||
| 2.2 | Expected points. The points each side's chances were worth, on average. | 0.6 | ||