Arsenal v Aston Villa

ArsenalArsenal

10:00 AM ET

Aston VillaAston Villa

A win lifts Arsenal's chances of the title to 84%; a loss drops them to 72%.

• Date Saturday, April 17

Tale of the tape

	Arsenal and Aston Villa, against the league medianArsenalAston Villa
Position	Arsenal 1st, Aston Villa 9th, league median 10.5th1st9th
Points	Arsenal 24, Aston Villa 12, league median 112412
Points, last 5	Arsenal 12, Aston Villa 11, league median 81211
Offense	Arsenal 1.79, Aston Villa 1.44, league median 1.451.791.44
Defense	Arsenal 0.73, Aston Villa 1.23, league median 1.240.731.23
Champions League odds	Arsenal >99%, Aston Villa 4%, league median 2%>99%4%
	League medianMedianBetter

Most likely scores

Most likely scores, Arsenal goals down, Aston Villa goals across. The most likely is 2–0 at 12%. The chance either side scores five or more is 5%.

		Aston Villa goals
		Aston Villa 0	Aston Villa 1	Aston Villa 2	Aston Villa 3	Aston Villa 4
Arsenal goals	Arsenal 0	7%	4%	2%	1%	<1%
	Arsenal 1	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%
	Arsenal 2	12%	10%	4%	1%	<1%
	Arsenal 3	8%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
	Arsenal 4	4%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%

Table

Where Arsenal and Aston Villa sit in the table. The top 4 qualify for the Champions League.

Position	Team	LeftRegular-season matches left to play.	GDGoal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded.	Pts.	Champions LeagueChance of finishing in the top 4, which qualifies for the Champions League. Hover a cell to see how it moved this season.
1	Arsenal	29	+9	24	>99%
2	Man City	29	+10	21	90%
…
8	Tottenham	29	0	12	2%
9	Aston Villa	29	−3	12	4%
10	Hull	29	+1	11	<1%

Full table

Odds by result

Each team's season odds now and after each result of this match, with the change in percentage points.

Result	ArsenalTitle	Aston VillaChampions League
Now	80%	4%
Arsenal win	, up 4 points84%	, no change4%
Draw	, down 4 points76%	, up 1 point5%
Aston Villa win	, down 8 points72%	, up 4 points8%