Arsenal v Manchester City
Must watchRated 53 of 100 on quality and stakes, top 10% of past matches rated as far ahead.
A win lifts Arsenal's chances of the title to 86%; a loss drops them to 69%.
- Date
Win chances: Arsenal favored. Arsenal win 53%, draw 25%, Man City win 22%.
Issued Nov 2 at 12:35 AM EST by model version 2. How the forecast works
Tale of the tape
| Arsenal and Man City, against the league median | |
|---|---|
| Position | Arsenal 1st, Man City 2nd, league median 10.5th |
| Points | Arsenal 24, Man City 21, league median 11 |
| Points, last 5 | Arsenal 12, Man City 9, league median 8 |
| Offense | Arsenal 1.79, Man City 1.88, league median 1.45 |
| Defense | Arsenal 0.73, Man City 1.06, league median 1.24 |
| Champions League odds | Arsenal >99%, Man City 90%, league median 2% |
| League medianMedianBetter |
Most likely scores
| Man City 0 | Man City 1 | Man City 2 | Man City 3 | Man City 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal 0 | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | |
| Arsenal 1 | 10% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | |
| Arsenal 2 | 9% | 10% | 5% | 2% | <1% | |
| Arsenal 3 | 5% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | |
| Arsenal 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | <1% | |
Table
| Position | Team | Regular-season matches left to play. | Goal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded. | Pts. | Chance of finishing in the top 4, which qualifies for the Champions League. Hover a cell to see how it moved this season. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 29 | +9 | 24 | |
| 2 | Man City | 29 | +10 | 21 | |
| 3 | Brighton | 29 | +17 | 19 |
Title odds by result
| Result | Arsenal | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 80% | 13% |
| Arsenal win | , up 6 points86% | , down 5 points8% |
| Draw | , down 2 points78% | , up 2 points15% |
| Man City win | , down 11 points69% | , up 10 points23% |