Aston Villa v Chelsea
Chelsea is 1 point clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 34%, a loss to 22%.
- Date
Win chances: Aston Villa favored. Aston Villa win 40%, draw 25%, Chelsea win 35%.
Issued Nov 2 at 12:35 AM EST by model version 2. How the forecast works
Tale of the tape
| Aston Villa and Chelsea, against the league median | |
|---|---|
| Position | Aston Villa 9th, Chelsea 4th, league median 10.5th |
| Points | Aston Villa 12, Chelsea 16, league median 11 |
| Points, last 5 | Aston Villa 11, Chelsea 9, league median 8 |
| Offense | Aston Villa 1.44, Chelsea 1.69, league median 1.45 |
| Defense | Aston Villa 1.23, Chelsea 1.28, league median 1.24 |
| Champions League odds | Aston Villa 4%, Chelsea 28%, league median 2% |
| League medianMedianBetter |
Most likely scores
| Chelsea 0 | Chelsea 1 | Chelsea 2 | Chelsea 3 | Chelsea 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa 0 | 5% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | |
| Aston Villa 1 | 6% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 2% | |
| Aston Villa 2 | 6% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | |
| Aston Villa 3 | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | |
| Aston Villa 4 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | <1% | |
Table
| Position | Team | Regular-season matches left to play. | Goal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded. | Pts. | Chance of finishing in the top 4, which qualifies for the Champions League. Hover a cell to see how it moved this season. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 29 | +17 | 19 | |
| 4 | Chelsea | 29 | +4 | 16 | |
| 5 | Liverpool | 29 | +2 | 15 | |
| 8 | Tottenham | 29 | 0 | 12 | |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 29 | −3 | 12 | |
| 10 | Hull | 29 | +1 | 11 |
Champions League odds by result
| Result | Aston Villa | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 4% | 28% |
| Aston Villa win | , up 3 points7% | , down 6 points22% |
| Draw | , down 1 point3% | , down 1 point27% |
| Chelsea win | , down 1 point3% | , up 6 points34% |