Chelsea v Arsenal
Chelsea is 1 point clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 36%, a loss to 24%.
- Date
Win chances: Arsenal favored. Chelsea win 24%, draw 25%, Arsenal win 51%.
Issued Nov 2 at 12:35 AM EST by model version 2. How the forecast works
Tale of the tape
| Chelsea and Arsenal, against the league median | |
|---|---|
| Position | Chelsea 4th, Arsenal 1st, league median 10.5th |
| Points | Chelsea 16, Arsenal 24, league median 11 |
| Points, last 5 | Chelsea 9, Arsenal 12, league median 8 |
| Offense | Chelsea 1.69, Arsenal 1.79, league median 1.45 |
| Defense | Chelsea 1.28, Arsenal 0.73, league median 1.24 |
| Champions League odds | Chelsea 28%, Arsenal >99%, league median 2% |
| League medianMedianBetter |
Most likely scores
| Arsenal 0 | Arsenal 1 | Arsenal 2 | Arsenal 3 | Arsenal 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea 0 | 7% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | |
| Chelsea 1 | 6% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 2% | |
| Chelsea 2 | 4% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | |
| Chelsea 3 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | |
| Chelsea 4 | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | |
Table
| Position | Team | Regular-season matches left to play. | Goal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded. | Pts. | Chance of finishing in the top 4, which qualifies for the Champions League. Hover a cell to see how it moved this season. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 29 | +9 | 24 | |
| 2 | Man City | 29 | +10 | 21 | |
| 3 | Brighton | 29 | +17 | 19 | |
| 4 | Chelsea | 29 | +4 | 16 | |
| 5 | Liverpool | 29 | +2 | 15 |
Odds by result
| Result | ChelseaChampions League | ArsenalTitle |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 28% | 80% |
| Chelsea win | , up 8 points36% | , down 7 points73% |
| Draw | , down 1 point27% | , down 1 point79% |
| Arsenal win | , down 4 points24% | , up 5 points85% |