Chelsea v Aston Villa
Chelsea is 1 point clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 32%, a loss to 21%.
- Date
Win chances: Chelsea favored. Chelsea win 49%, draw 24%, Aston Villa win 27%.
Issued Nov 2 at 12:35 AM EST by model version 2. How the forecast works
Tale of the tape
| Chelsea and Aston Villa, against the league median | |
|---|---|
| Position | Chelsea 4th, Aston Villa 9th, league median 10.5th |
| Points | Chelsea 16, Aston Villa 12, league median 11 |
| Points, last 5 | Chelsea 9, Aston Villa 11, league median 8 |
| Offense | Chelsea 1.69, Aston Villa 1.44, league median 1.45 |
| Defense | Chelsea 1.28, Aston Villa 1.23, league median 1.24 |
| Champions League odds | Chelsea 28%, Aston Villa 4%, league median 2% |
| League medianMedianBetter |
Most likely scores
| Aston Villa 0 | Aston Villa 1 | Aston Villa 2 | Aston Villa 3 | Aston Villa 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea 0 | 5% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | |
| Chelsea 1 | 7% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 1% | |
| Chelsea 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | |
| Chelsea 3 | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | |
| Chelsea 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | |
Table
| Position | Team | Regular-season matches left to play. | Goal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded. | Pts. | Chance of finishing in the top 4, which qualifies for the Champions League. Hover a cell to see how it moved this season. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 29 | +17 | 19 | |
| 4 | Chelsea | 29 | +4 | 16 | |
| 5 | Liverpool | 29 | +2 | 15 | |
| 8 | Tottenham | 29 | 0 | 12 | |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 29 | −3 | 12 | |
| 10 | Hull | 29 | +1 | 11 |
Champions League odds by result
| Result | Chelsea | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 28% | 4% |
| Chelsea win | , up 4 points32% | , down 1 point3% |
| Draw | , down 3 points25% | , up 1 point5% |
| Aston Villa win | , down 7 points21% | , up 2 points6% |