Chelsea v Newcastle United
Chelsea is 1 point clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 33%, a loss to 20%.
- Date
Win chances: Chelsea favored. Chelsea win 53%, draw 22%, Newcastle win 25%.
Issued Nov 2 at 12:35 AM EST by model version 2. How the forecast works
Tale of the tape
| Chelsea and Newcastle, against the league median | |
|---|---|
| Position | Chelsea 4th, Newcastle 12th, league median 10.5th |
| Points | Chelsea 16, Newcastle 11, league median 11 |
| Points, last 5 | Chelsea 9, Newcastle 6, league median 8 |
| Offense | Chelsea 1.69, Newcastle 1.46, league median 1.45 |
| Defense | Chelsea 1.28, Newcastle 1.36, league median 1.24 |
| Champions League odds | Chelsea 28%, Newcastle 2%, league median 2% |
| League medianMedianBetter |
Most likely scores
| Newcastle 0 | Newcastle 1 | Newcastle 2 | Newcastle 3 | Newcastle 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea 0 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | <1% | |
| Chelsea 1 | 6% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | |
| Chelsea 2 | 7% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | |
| Chelsea 3 | 5% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | |
| Chelsea 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | |
Table
| Position | Team | Regular-season matches left to play. | Goal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded. | Pts. | Chance of finishing in the top 4, which qualifies for the Champions League. Hover a cell to see how it moved this season. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 29 | +17 | 19 | |
| 4 | Chelsea | 29 | +4 | 16 | |
| 5 | Liverpool | 29 | +2 | 15 | |
| 11 | Leeds | 29 | +1 | 11 | |
| 12 | Newcastle | 30 | −2 | 11 | |
| 13 | Ipswich | 29 | −4 | 11 |
Odds by result
| Result | ChelseaChampions League | NewcastleRelegation |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 28% | 7% |
| Chelsea win | , up 5 points33% | , up 2 points9% |
| Draw | , down 5 points23% | , no change7% |
| Newcastle win | , down 8 points20% | , down 3 points4% |