Manchester City v Arsenal
A win lifts Arsenal's chances of the title to 87%; a loss drops them to 72%.
- Date
Win chances: Arsenal favored. Man City win 32%, draw 28%, Arsenal win 40%.
Issued Nov 2 at 12:35 AM EST by model version 2. How the forecast works
Tale of the tape
| Man City and Arsenal, against the league median | |
|---|---|
| Position | Man City 2nd, Arsenal 1st, league median 10.5th |
| Points | Man City 21, Arsenal 24, league median 11 |
| Points, last 5 | Man City 9, Arsenal 12, league median 8 |
| Offense | Man City 1.88, Arsenal 1.79, league median 1.45 |
| Defense | Man City 1.06, Arsenal 0.73, league median 1.24 |
| Champions League odds | Man City 90%, Arsenal >99%, league median 2% |
| League medianMedianBetter |
Most likely scores
| Arsenal 0 | Arsenal 1 | Arsenal 2 | Arsenal 3 | Arsenal 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City 0 | 8% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | |
| Man City 1 | 8% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | |
| Man City 2 | 5% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 1% | |
| Man City 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | |
| Man City 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | |
Table
| Position | Team | Regular-season matches left to play. | Goal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded. | Pts. | Chance of finishing in the top 4, which qualifies for the Champions League. Hover a cell to see how it moved this season. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 29 | +9 | 24 | |
| 2 | Man City | 29 | +10 | 21 | |
| 3 | Brighton | 29 | +17 | 19 |
Title odds by result
| Result | Man City | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 13% | 80% |
| Man City win | , up 8 points21% | , down 8 points72% |
| Draw | , down 1 point12% | , no change80% |
| Arsenal win | , down 6 points7% | , up 7 points87% |