Manchester City v Chelsea
Must watchRated 45 of 100 on quality and stakes, top 10% of past matches rated as far ahead.
Chelsea is 1 point clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 38%, a loss to 23%.
- Date
Win chances: Man City favored. Man City win 56%, draw 22%, Chelsea win 22%.
Issued Nov 2 at 12:35 AM EST by model version 2. How the forecast works
Tale of the tape
| Man City and Chelsea, against the league median | |
|---|---|
| Position | Man City 2nd, Chelsea 4th, league median 10.5th |
| Points | Man City 21, Chelsea 16, league median 11 |
| Points, last 5 | Man City 9, Chelsea 9, league median 8 |
| Offense | Man City 1.88, Chelsea 1.69, league median 1.45 |
| Defense | Man City 1.06, Chelsea 1.28, league median 1.24 |
| Champions League odds | Man City 90%, Chelsea 28%, league median 2% |
| League medianMedianBetter |
Most likely scores
| Chelsea 0 | Chelsea 1 | Chelsea 2 | Chelsea 3 | Chelsea 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City 0 | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1% | <1% | |
| Man City 1 | 6% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | |
| Man City 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | |
| Man City 3 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | |
| Man City 4 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | <1% | |
Table
| Position | Team | Regular-season matches left to play. | Goal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded. | Pts. | Chance of finishing in the top 4, which qualifies for the Champions League. Hover a cell to see how it moved this season. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 29 | +9 | 24 | |
| 2 | Man City | 29 | +10 | 21 | |
| 3 | Brighton | 29 | +17 | 19 | |
| 4 | Chelsea | 29 | +4 | 16 | |
| 5 | Liverpool | 29 | +2 | 15 |
Champions League odds by result
| Result | Man City | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 90% | 28% |
| Man City win | , up 3 points93% | , down 5 points23% |
| Draw | , down 2 points88% | , up 1 point29% |
| Chelsea win | , down 6 points84% | , up 10 points38% |