Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest
Newcastle is 5 points out with 30 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
- Date
Win chances: Newcastle favored. Newcastle win 44%, draw 26%, Nott'm Forest win 30%.
Issued Nov 2 at 12:35 AM EST by model version 2. How the forecast works
Tale of the tape
| Newcastle and Nott'm Forest, against the league median | |
|---|---|
| Position | Newcastle 12th, Nott'm Forest 19th, league median 10.5th |
| Points | Newcastle 11, Nott'm Forest 6, league median 11 |
| Points, last 5 | Newcastle 6, Nott'm Forest 1, league median 8 |
| Offense | Newcastle 1.46, Nott'm Forest 1.28, league median 1.45 |
| Defense | Newcastle 1.36, Nott'm Forest 1.23, league median 1.24 |
| Relegation odds | Newcastle 7%, Nott'm Forest 29%, league median 7% |
| League medianMedianBetter |
Most likely scores
| Nott'm Forest 0 | Nott'm Forest 1 | Nott'm Forest 2 | Nott'm Forest 3 | Nott'm Forest 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle 0 | 6% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | |
| Newcastle 1 | 8% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | |
| Newcastle 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | |
| Newcastle 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% | |
| Newcastle 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | |
Table
| Position | Team | Regular-season matches left to play. | Goal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded. | Pts. | Chance of finishing in the bottom 3, which go down. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Leeds | 29 | +1 | 11 | |
| 12 | Newcastle | 30 | −2 | 11 | |
| 13 | Ipswich | 29 | −4 | 11 | |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 29 | −12 | 7 | |
| 19 | Nott'm Forest | 29 | −6 | 6 | |
| 20 | Sunderland | 29 | −10 | 5 |
Relegation odds by result
| Result | Newcastle | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 7% | 29% |
| Newcastle win | , down 2 points5% | , up 5 points34% |
| Draw | , up 2 points9% | , up 1 point30% |
| Nott'm Forest win | , up 3 points10% | , down 9 points20% |