Newcastle United v Sunderland
Newcastle is 5 points out with 30 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
- Date
Win chances: Newcastle favored. Newcastle win 49%, draw 25%, Sunderland win 26%.
Issued Nov 2 at 12:35 AM EST by model version 2. How the forecast works
Tale of the tape
| Newcastle and Sunderland, against the league median | |
|---|---|
| Position | Newcastle 12th, Sunderland 20th, league median 10.5th |
| Points | Newcastle 11, Sunderland 5, league median 11 |
| Points, last 5 | Newcastle 6, Sunderland 1, league median 8 |
| Offense | Newcastle 1.46, Sunderland 1.17, league median 1.45 |
| Defense | Newcastle 1.36, Sunderland 1.31, league median 1.24 |
| Relegation odds | Newcastle 7%, Sunderland 55%, league median 7% |
| League medianMedianBetter |
Most likely scores
| Sunderland 0 | Sunderland 1 | Sunderland 2 | Sunderland 3 | Sunderland 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle 0 | 6% | 6% | 4% | 2% | <1% | |
| Newcastle 1 | 9% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 1% | |
| Newcastle 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | |
| Newcastle 3 | 5% | 6% | 3% | 1% | <1% | |
| Newcastle 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | <1% | |
Table
| Position | Team | Regular-season matches left to play. | Goal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded. | Pts. | Chance of finishing in the bottom 3, which go down. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Leeds | 29 | +1 | 11 | |
| 12 | Newcastle | 30 | −2 | 11 | |
| 13 | Ipswich | 29 | −4 | 11 | |
| 19 | Nott'm Forest | 29 | −6 | 6 | |
| 20 | Sunderland | 29 | −10 | 5 |
Relegation odds by result
| Result | Newcastle | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 7% | 55% |
| Newcastle win | , down 2 points5% | , up 6 points61% |
| Draw | , up 1 point8% | , no change55% |
| Sunderland win | , up 5 points12% | , down 10 points45% |