Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes
Must watchRated 46 of 100 on quality and stakes, top 10% of past matches.
Minnesota is 2 points out with 1 to play; a win lifts it to 44%, a loss drops it to under 1%.
- Date
- Venue Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota
- Where to watch in the US: Apple TV, streaming
Win chances: Minnesota favored. Minnesota win 48%, draw 23%, San Jose win 29%.
Issued Nov 2 at 12:06 AM EST by model version 2. How the forecast works
Tale of the tape
| Minnesota and San Jose, against the league median | |
|---|---|
| Position | Minnesota 12th, San Jose 3rd, league median 8th |
| Points | Minnesota 41, San Jose 52, league median 43.5 |
| Points, last 5 | Minnesota 11, San Jose 6, league median 6 |
| Offense | Minnesota 1.56, San Jose 1.48, league median 1.41 |
| Defense | Minnesota 1.45, San Jose 1.43, league median 1.44 |
| Playoff odds | Minnesota 21%, San Jose >99%, league median 85% |
| League medianMedianBetter |
Most likely scores
| San Jose 0 | San Jose 1 | San Jose 2 | San Jose 3 | San Jose 4 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota 0 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | |
| Minnesota 1 | 6% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 1% | |
| Minnesota 2 | 6% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 1% | |
| Minnesota 3 | 4% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 1% | |
| Minnesota 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | <1% | |
Table
| Position | Western Conference | Regular-season matches left to play. | Goal difference. Goals scored minus goals conceded. | Pts. | Chance of finishing in the top 9 of the conference and making the playoffs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dallas | 1 | +9 | 55 | |
| 3 | San Jose | 1 | +8 | 52 | |
| 4 | St. Louis | 1 | +10 | 51 | |
| 11 | Salt Lake | 1 | 0 | 42 | |
| 12 | Minnesota | 1 | −4 | 41 | |
| 13 | San Diego | 1 | −5 | 38 |
Odds by result
| Result | MinnesotaPlayoffs | San JoseHome field |
|---|---|---|
| Now | 21% | >99% |
| Minnesota win | , up 23 points44% | , no change>99% |
| Draw | , down 21 points<1% | , no change>99% |
| San Jose win | , down 21 points<1% | , no change>99% |
Minnesota needs a win to stay in the playoff race.
San Jose clinches home field in the playoffs with a win or a draw.