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Swansea City v Southampton, Premier League 2016–17

SwanseaSwansea City

Mawson 38'Sigurdsson 70'

Final score 2 to 1

Expected goals 1.3 to 0.9

Full time

SouthamptonSouthampton

Long 57'

Win chances: Southampton favored. Swansea win 26%, draw 26%, Southampton win 48%.

What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Jan 31. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works

Expected goals

Expected goals, goals, and expected points, Swansea and Southampton
SwanseaSouthampton
1.30.9
2Goals1
1.71.0