Burnley v Newcastle United, Premier League 2025–26
BurnleyBurnley
Laurent 23'
Final score 1 to 3
Expected goals 1.1 to 2.4
NewcastleNewcastle United
Joelinton 2'Wissa 7'Guimarães 90+3'
- Date Tuesday, December 30, 2025
- Premier League 2025–26
What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Dec 30. It was not published before the match.
Win chances: Newcastle favored. Burnley win 19%, draw 21%, Newcastle win 60%.
What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Dec 30. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works
Expected goals
| Burnley | Newcastle | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | Expected goals. What each side's chances were worth, in goals, from our own model of each shot in the match's commentary. | 2.4 | ||
| 1 | Goals | 3 | ||
| 0.7 | Expected points. The points each side's chances were worth, on average. | 2.1 | ||