Newcastle United v Burnley, Premier League 2025–26
NewcastleNewcastle United
Guimarães 31'Gordon 45+8' penalty
Final score 2 to 1
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.5
BurnleyBurnley
Flemming 90+4' penalty
- Date Saturday, December 6, 2025
- Premier League 2025–26
What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Dec 6. It was not published before the match.
Win chances: Newcastle favored. Newcastle win 77%, draw 14%, Burnley win 9%.
What model version 2 would have said before kickoff, worked out afterward from the results known on Dec 6. It was not published before the match. How the forecast works
Expected goals
| Newcastle | Burnley | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.7 | Expected goals. What each side's chances were worth, in goals, from our own model of each shot in the match's commentary. | 1.5 | ||
| 2 | Goals | 1 | ||
| 1.5 | Expected points. The points each side's chances were worth, on average. | 1.2 | ||