Premier League matches

SaturdayMay 15

1. Arsenal v Nottingham Forest

   10:00 AM ET

   ArsenalArsenal v

   Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest

   Forecast: Arsenal favored. Arsenal win 67%, draw 21%, Nott'm Forest win 12%.

   Arsenal winArsenal win 67%Most likely 2–0 (13%). By 2+ goals 43%.DrawDraw 21%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 7%.Nott'm Forest winNott'm Forest win 12%Most likely 0–1 (4%). By 2+ goals 3%.

   67%21%12%

   Arsenal is the week's heaviest favorite.

2. Aston Villa v Newcastle United

   10:00 AM ET

   Aston VillaAston Villa v

   Newcastle UnitedNewcastle

   Forecast: Aston Villa favored. Aston Villa win 47%, draw 25%, Newcastle win 28%.

   Aston Villa winAston Villa win 47%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 26%.DrawDraw 25%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Newcastle winNewcastle win 28%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 13%.

   47%25%28%

3. Chelsea v Everton

   10:00 AM ET

   ChelseaChelsea v

   EvertonEverton

   Forecast: Chelsea favored. Chelsea win 53%, draw 24%, Everton win 23%.

   Chelsea winChelsea win 53%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 31%.DrawDraw 24%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Everton winEverton win 23%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 9%.

   53%24%23%

   Chelsea is 1 point clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 32%, a loss to 20%.

4. Coventry City v Tottenham Hotspur

   10:00 AM ET

   Coventry CityCoventry v

   Tottenham HotspurTottenham

   Forecast: Coventry favored. Coventry win 40%, draw 26%, Tottenham win 34%.

   Coventry winCoventry win 40%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 20%.DrawDraw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Tottenham winTottenham win 34%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 16%.

   40%26%34%

   The table says 16th vs. 8th, but the win chances are 40% and 34%.

5. Crystal Palace v Brighton & Hove Albion

   10:00 AM ET

   Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace v

   Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton

   Forecast: Brighton favored. Crystal Palace win 24%, draw 23%, Brighton win 53%.

   Crystal Palace winCrystal Palace win 24%Most likely 2–1 (6%). By 2+ goals 10%.DrawDraw 23%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 4%.Brighton winBrighton win 53%Most likely 1–2 (10%). By 2+ goals 32%.

   24%23%53%

   Brighton won 5–0 when they met in October.

6. Hull City v Fulham

   10:00 AM ET

   Hull CityHull v

   FulhamFulham

   Forecast: Hull favored. Hull win 36%, draw 30%, Fulham win 34%.

   Hull winHull win 36%Most likely 1–0 (10%). By 2+ goals 16%.DrawDraw 30%Most likely 1–1 (14%). Scoreless 10%.Fulham winFulham win 34%Most likely 0–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 15%.

   36%30%34%

   Both need this to stay up; a win cuts Hull's chances of going down to 24%, Fulham's to 14%.

7. Ipswich Town v Manchester City

   10:00 AM ET

   Ipswich TownIpswich v

   Manchester CityMan City

   Forecast: Man City favored. Ipswich win 22%, draw 20%, Man City win 58%.

   Ipswich winIpswich win 22%Most likely 2–1 (5%). By 2+ goals 9%.DrawDraw 20%Most likely 1–1 (8%). Scoreless 3%.Man City winMan City win 58%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 38%.

   22%20%58%

   3.8 goals expected, the most of any match this week.

8. Liverpool v Brentford

   10:00 AM ET

   LiverpoolLiverpool v

   BrentfordBrentford

   Forecast: Liverpool favored. Liverpool win 50%, draw 24%, Brentford win 26%.

   Liverpool winLiverpool win 50%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 29%.DrawDraw 24%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Brentford winBrentford win 26%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 11%.

   50%24%26%

   5th and 6th both chase fourth place; a win lifts Liverpool to 56%, Brentford to 24%.

9. Manchester United v Leeds United

   10:00 AM ET

   Manchester UnitedMan United v

   Leeds UnitedLeeds

   Forecast: Man United favored. Man United win 45%, draw 27%, Leeds win 28%.

   Man United winMan United win 45%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 24%.DrawDraw 27%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 7%.Leeds winLeeds win 28%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 12%.

   45%27%28%

   Man United is the favorite despite sitting 6 places below Leeds.

10. Sunderland v AFC Bournemouth

    10:00 AM ET

    SunderlandSunderland v

    AFC BournemouthBournemouth

    Forecast: Bournemouth favored. Sunderland win 26%, draw 26%, Bournemouth win 48%.

    Sunderland winSunderland win 26%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 11%.DrawDraw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 7%.Bournemouth winBournemouth win 48%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 25%.

    26%26%48%

    Bournemouth is 4 points out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 30%, a loss to 20%.