Premier League matches
Nov 23–29
Monday
Brentford v Everton
Forecast: Brentford favored. Brentford win 52%, draw 25%, Everton win 23%.Brentford win 52%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 30%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 6%.Everton win 23%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 9%.
Friday
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest v
Forecast: Chelsea favored. Nott'm Forest win 35%, draw 26%, Chelsea win 39%.Nott'm Forest win 35%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 17%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Chelsea win 39%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 20%.Home field evens it against Chelsea, 6th by rating.
Toss-upWin chances within 5 points.
Saturday
Leeds United v Coventry City
Forecast: Leeds favored. Leeds win 47%, draw 26%, Coventry win 27%.Leeds win 47%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 25%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 7%.Coventry win 27%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 11%.Leeds is 5 points out with 29 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
Manchester United v Brentford
Forecast: Man United favored. Man United win 43%, draw 24%, Brentford win 33%.Man United win 43%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 23%.Draw 24%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Brentford win 33%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 16%.Man United is the favorite despite sitting 11 places below Brentford.
Ipswich Town v Aston Villa
Forecast: Aston Villa favored. Ipswich win 34%, draw 24%, Aston Villa win 42%.Ipswich win 34%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 17%.Draw 24%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 4%.Aston Villa win 42%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 23%.3.5 goals expected, the most of any match this week.
Sunday
Everton v Liverpool
Forecast: Liverpool favored. Everton win 29%, draw 27%, Liverpool win 44%.Everton win 29%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 12%.Draw 27%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 7%.Liverpool win 44%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 23%.Liverpool is 1 point out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 55%, a loss drops them to 40%.
Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton v
Forecast: Brighton favored. Brighton win 58%, draw 22%, Newcastle win 20%.Brighton win 58%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 36%.Draw 22%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 4%.Newcastle win 20%Most likely 1–2 (5%). By 2+ goals 8%.Brighton is 4 points clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 83%, a loss to 71%.
Crystal Palace v Hull City
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace v
Forecast: Crystal Palace favored. Crystal Palace win 42%, draw 27%, Hull win 31%.Crystal Palace win 42%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 21%.Draw 27%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 7%.Hull win 31%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 14%.Both need this to stay up; a win cuts Crystal Palace's chances of going down to 53%, Hull's to 21%.
High stakesStakes 35 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Fulham v AFC Bournemouth
Forecast: Bournemouth favored. Fulham win 30%, draw 27%, Bournemouth win 43%.Fulham win 30%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 13%.Draw 27%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 7%.Bournemouth win 43%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 22%.Bournemouth is 4 points out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 32%, a loss to 19%.
Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur
Forecast: Tottenham favored. Sunderland win 35%, draw 28%, Tottenham win 37%.Sunderland win 35%Most likely 1–0 (9%). By 2+ goals 16%.Draw 28%Most likely 1–1 (14%). Scoreless 8%.Tottenham win 37%Most likely 0–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 17%.Home field evens it against Tottenham, 11th by rating.
Toss-upWin chances within 5 points.Arsenal v Manchester City
Forecast: Arsenal favored. Arsenal win 53%, draw 25%, Man City win 22%.Arsenal win 53%Most likely 1–0 (10%). By 2+ goals 29%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 7%.Man City win 22%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 8%.A win lifts Arsenal's chances of the title to 86%; a loss drops them to 69%.
Must watchRated 53 of 100 on quality and stakes, top 10% of past matches rated as far ahead.
