Premier League matches
Nov 30–Dec 6
Wednesday
Aston Villa v Everton
Forecast: Aston Villa favored. Aston Villa win 48%, draw 26%, Everton win 26%.Aston Villa win 48%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 25%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 7%.Everton win 26%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 11%.AFC Bournemouth v Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton
Forecast: Bournemouth favored. Bournemouth win 42%, draw 25%, Brighton win 33%.Bournemouth win 42%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 22%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 5%.Brighton win 33%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 15%.Bournemouth is the favorite despite sitting 4 places below Brighton.
Must watchRated 46 of 100 on quality and stakes, top 10% of past matches rated as far ahead.Brentford v Arsenal
Forecast: Arsenal favored. Brentford win 23%, draw 26%, Arsenal win 51%.Brentford win 23%Most likely 2–1 (6%). By 2+ goals 9%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 7%.Arsenal win 51%Most likely 0–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 28%.Arsenal is 1st by rating, Brentford 7th; Brentford is 2 points out with 29 to play.
Top qualityQuality 61 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Chelsea v Crystal Palace
Forecast: Chelsea favored. Chelsea win 61%, draw 20%, Crystal Palace win 19%.Chelsea win 61%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 40%.Draw 20%Most likely 1–1 (8%). Scoreless 3%.Crystal Palace win 19%Most likely 1–2 (5%). By 2+ goals 8%.3.6 goals expected, 23% more than an average match; Chelsea is the week's heaviest favorite.
High scoring23% more goals than an average match, top 10% of past matches rated as far ahead.Coventry City v Ipswich Town
Forecast: Coventry favored. Coventry win 50%, draw 22%, Ipswich win 28%.Coventry win 50%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 30%.Draw 22%Most likely 1–1 (9%). Scoreless 3%.Ipswich win 28%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 13%.Both need this to stay up; a win cuts Coventry's chances of going down to 17%, Ipswich's to 25%.
High stakesStakes 31 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Hull City v Nottingham Forest
Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest
Forecast: No favorite. Hull win 35%, draw 30%, Nott'm Forest win 35%.Hull win 35%Most likely 1–0 (10%). By 2+ goals 16%.Draw 30%Most likely 1–1 (14%). Scoreless 10%.Nott'm Forest win 35%Most likely 0–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 15%.The table says 10th vs. 19th, but the win chances are 35% and 35%.
High stakesStakes 31 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Liverpool v Sunderland
Forecast: Liverpool favored. Liverpool win 61%, draw 23%, Sunderland win 16%.Liverpool win 61%Most likely 2–0 (11%). By 2+ goals 37%.Draw 23%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 6%.Sunderland win 16%Most likely 1–2 (5%). By 2+ goals 6%.Liverpool is 1 point out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 53%, a loss drops them to 39%.
High stakesStakes 29 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Manchester City v Leeds United
Forecast: Man City favored. Man City win 57%, draw 24%, Leeds win 19%.Man City win 57%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 34%.Draw 24%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 6%.Leeds win 19%Most likely 1–2 (5%). By 2+ goals 7%.Newcastle United v Manchester United
Forecast: Newcastle favored. Newcastle win 39%, draw 25%, Man United win 36%.Newcastle win 39%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 20%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Man United win 36%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 18%.Toss-upMan United is 8th by rating, Newcastle 12th, and home field evens it.Win chances within 5 points.Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham
Forecast: Tottenham favored. Tottenham win 44%, draw 28%, Fulham win 28%.Tottenham win 44%Most likely 1–0 (10%). By 2+ goals 22%.Draw 28%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 8%.Fulham win 28%Most likely 0–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 11%.Tottenham is 4 points out with 29 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
Saturday
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Forecast: Aston Villa favored. Aston Villa win 55%, draw 23%, Crystal Palace win 22%.Aston Villa win 55%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 33%.Draw 23%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 5%.Crystal Palace win 22%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 9%.Aston Villa is 4 points out with 29 to play; a loss drops its chances to 3%.
AFC Bournemouth v Hull City
Forecast: Bournemouth favored. Bournemouth win 60%, draw 23%, Hull win 17%.Bournemouth win 60%Most likely 2–0 (11%). By 2+ goals 36%.Draw 23%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 7%.Hull win 17%Most likely 0–1 (5%). By 2+ goals 6%.Bournemouth is 4 points out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 29%, a loss to 18%.
Brentford v Manchester City
Forecast: Man City favored. Brentford win 34%, draw 24%, Man City win 42%.Brentford win 34%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 17%.Draw 24%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 4%.Man City win 42%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 23%.Man City is 2nd by rating, Brentford 7th; Brentford is 2 points out with 29 to play.
Top qualityQuality 58 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Chelsea v Liverpool
Forecast: Chelsea favored. Chelsea win 39%, draw 25%, Liverpool win 36%.Chelsea win 39%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 20%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Liverpool win 36%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 18%.4th meets 5th for fourth place; a win lifts Chelsea to 37%, Liverpool to 59%.
Must watchRated 49 of 100 on quality and stakes, top 10% of past matches rated as far ahead.Everton v Fulham
Forecast: Everton favored. Everton win 41%, draw 28%, Fulham win 31%.Everton win 41%Most likely 1–0 (10%). By 2+ goals 19%.Draw 28%Most likely 1–1 (14%). Scoreless 9%.Fulham win 31%Most likely 0–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 13%.Both need this to stay up; a win cuts Everton's chances of going down to 9%, Fulham's to 14%.
Leeds United v Ipswich Town
Forecast: Leeds favored. Leeds win 54%, draw 23%, Ipswich win 23%.Leeds win 54%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 32%.Draw 23%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 5%.Ipswich win 23%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 10%.Leeds is 5 points out with 29 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
Manchester United v Coventry City
Forecast: Man United favored. Man United win 52%, draw 23%, Coventry win 25%.Man United win 52%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 31%.Draw 23%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Coventry win 25%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 11%.Man United is 9 points out with 29 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
Newcastle United v Sunderland
Forecast: Newcastle favored. Newcastle win 49%, draw 25%, Sunderland win 26%.Newcastle win 49%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 27%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Sunderland win 26%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 11%.Newcastle is 5 points out with 30 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
Nottingham Forest v Brighton & Hove Albion
Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest v
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton
Forecast: Brighton favored. Nott'm Forest win 30%, draw 26%, Brighton win 44%.Nott'm Forest win 30%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 13%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 7%.Brighton win 44%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 23%.Brighton is 4 points clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 83%, a loss to 73%.
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal
Forecast: Arsenal favored. Tottenham win 20%, draw 26%, Arsenal win 54%.Tottenham win 20%Most likely 1–0 (6%). By 2+ goals 7%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 9%.Arsenal win 54%Most likely 0–1 (12%). By 2+ goals 29%.A win lifts Arsenal's chances of the title to 84%; a loss drops them to 74%.