Premier League matches
Jan 4–10
Tuesday
Arsenal v Brentford
Forecast: Arsenal favored. Arsenal win 63%, draw 22%, Brentford win 15%.Arsenal win 63%Most likely 2–0 (11%). By 2+ goals 40%.Draw 22%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 6%.Brentford win 15%Most likely 1–2 (4%). By 2+ goals 5%.Arsenal is 1st by rating, Brentford 7th; Arsenal is the week's heaviest favorite.
Top qualityQuality 61 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Brighton & Hove Albion v AFC Bournemouth
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton v
Forecast: Brighton favored. Brighton win 46%, draw 25%, Bournemouth win 29%.Brighton win 46%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 25%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Bournemouth win 29%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 13%.Both need this for the top four; a win lifts Brighton to 84%, Bournemouth to 34%.
Must watchRated 46 of 100 on quality and stakes, top 10% of past matches rated as far ahead.Everton v Aston Villa
Forecast: Everton favored. Everton win 37%, draw 28%, Aston Villa win 35%.Everton win 37%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 18%.Draw 28%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 8%.Aston Villa win 35%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 16%.Home field evens it against Aston Villa, 9th by rating; the closest match of the week.
Toss-upWin chances within 5 points.Nottingham Forest v Hull City
Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest v
Forecast: Nott'm Forest favored. Nott'm Forest win 46%, draw 29%, Hull win 25%.Nott'm Forest win 46%Most likely 1–0 (12%). By 2+ goals 23%.Draw 29%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 10%.Hull win 25%Most likely 0–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 9%.Both need this to stay up; a win cuts Nott'm Forest's chances of going down to 23%, Hull's to 20%.
High stakesStakes 32 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Sunderland v Liverpool
Forecast: Liverpool favored. Sunderland win 26%, draw 26%, Liverpool win 48%.Sunderland win 26%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 10%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 7%.Liverpool win 48%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 26%.Liverpool is 1 point out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 55%, a loss drops them to 40%.
High stakesStakes 30 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.
Wednesday
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace v
Forecast: Chelsea favored. Crystal Palace win 30%, draw 23%, Chelsea win 47%.Crystal Palace win 30%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 14%.Draw 23%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 4%.Chelsea win 47%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 27%.Chelsea is 1 point clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 33%, a loss to 21%.
High stakesStakes 31 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur
Forecast: Fulham favored. Fulham win 39%, draw 28%, Tottenham win 33%.Fulham win 39%Most likely 1–0 (9%). By 2+ goals 19%.Draw 28%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 8%.Tottenham win 33%Most likely 0–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 14%.Tottenham is 4 points out with 29 to play; a loss drops its chances to 2%.
Ipswich Town v Coventry City
Forecast: Ipswich favored. Ipswich win 41%, draw 23%, Coventry win 36%.Ipswich win 41%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 22%.Draw 23%Most likely 1–1 (9%). Scoreless 3%.Coventry win 36%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 19%.Both need this to stay up; a win cuts Ipswich's chances of going down to 28%, Coventry's to 15%.
High stakesStakes 31 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Leeds United v Manchester City
Forecast: Man City favored. Leeds win 29%, draw 26%, Man City win 45%.Leeds win 29%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 13%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 7%.Man City win 45%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 23%.
Thursday
Manchester United v Newcastle United
Forecast: Man United favored. Man United win 49%, draw 24%, Newcastle win 27%.Man United win 49%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 28%.Draw 24%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Newcastle win 27%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 12%.Man United is the favorite despite sitting 5 places below Newcastle.
