Premier League matches
Jan 11–17
Saturday
Aston Villa v Manchester United
Forecast: Aston Villa favored. Aston Villa win 41%, draw 26%, Man United win 33%.Aston Villa win 41%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 22%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Man United win 33%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 15%.AFC Bournemouth v Ipswich Town
Forecast: Bournemouth favored. Bournemouth win 66%, draw 18%, Ipswich win 16%.Bournemouth win 66%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 45%.Draw 18%Most likely 1–1 (8%). Scoreless 3%.Ipswich win 16%Most likely 1–2 (4%). By 2+ goals 6%.3.8 goals expected, 28% more than an average match; Bournemouth is the week's heaviest favorite.
High scoring28% more goals than an average match, top 10% of past matches rated as far ahead.Brentford v Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton
Forecast: Brighton favored. Brentford win 37%, draw 25%, Brighton win 38%.Brentford win 37%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 19%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Brighton win 38%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 19%.Home field evens it against Brighton, 3rd by rating; the closest match of the week.
Toss-upWin chances within 5 points.Chelsea v Sunderland
Forecast: Chelsea favored. Chelsea win 57%, draw 23%, Sunderland win 20%.Chelsea win 57%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 35%.Draw 23%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Sunderland win 20%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 8%.Chelsea is 1 point clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 32%, a loss to 18%.
High stakesStakes 29 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Coventry City v Everton
Forecast: Coventry favored. Coventry win 43%, draw 26%, Everton win 31%.Coventry win 43%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 22%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 7%.Everton win 31%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 14%.Both need this to stay up; a win cuts Coventry's chances of going down to 17%, Everton's to 8%.
Hull City v Arsenal
Forecast: Arsenal favored. Hull win 15%, draw 26%, Arsenal win 59%.Hull win 15%Most likely 1–0 (6%). By 2+ goals 4%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 10%.Arsenal win 59%Most likely 0–1 (15%). By 2+ goals 34%.A win cuts Hull's chances of going down to 21%; a loss raises them to 35%.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace
Forecast: Liverpool favored. Liverpool win 65%, draw 20%, Crystal Palace win 15%.Liverpool win 65%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 43%.Draw 20%Most likely 1–1 (9%). Scoreless 4%.Crystal Palace win 15%Most likely 1–2 (4%). By 2+ goals 6%.Liverpool is 1 point out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 53%, a loss drops them to 38%.
High stakesStakes 33 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Manchester City v Nottingham Forest
Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest
Forecast: Man City favored. Man City win 61%, draw 22%, Nott'm Forest win 17%.Man City win 61%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 39%.Draw 22%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 5%.Nott'm Forest win 17%Most likely 1–2 (5%). By 2+ goals 6%.Man City is 6 points clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 93%, a loss to 84%.
High stakesStakes 29 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Newcastle United v Fulham
Forecast: Newcastle favored. Newcastle win 44%, draw 26%, Fulham win 30%.Newcastle win 44%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 23%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Fulham win 30%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 13%.Newcastle is 5 points out with 30 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
Tottenham Hotspur v Leeds United
Forecast: Tottenham favored. Tottenham win 41%, draw 28%, Leeds win 31%.Tottenham win 41%Most likely 1–0 (10%). By 2+ goals 19%.Draw 28%Most likely 1–1 (14%). Scoreless 9%.Leeds win 31%Most likely 0–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 13%.
