Premier League matches
Dec 28–Jan 3
Tuesday
Hull City v Leeds United
Forecast: Leeds favored. Hull win 33%, draw 30%, Leeds win 37%.Hull win 33%Most likely 1–0 (10%). By 2+ goals 13%.Draw 30%Most likely 1–1 (14%). Scoreless 11%.Leeds win 37%Most likely 0–1 (11%). By 2+ goals 16%.Home field evens it against Leeds, 10th by rating; Leeds is 5 points out with 29 to play.
Toss-upWin chances within 5 points.Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton
Forecast: Brighton favored. Tottenham win 32%, draw 26%, Brighton win 42%.Tottenham win 32%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 14%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Brighton win 42%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 22%.Brighton is 4 points clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 84%, a loss to 73%.
Everton v Manchester City
Forecast: Man City favored. Everton win 25%, draw 25%, Man City win 50%.Everton win 25%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 10%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Man City win 50%Most likely 1–2 (10%). By 2+ goals 28%.
Wednesday
Coventry City v Brentford
Forecast: Brentford favored. Coventry win 35%, draw 25%, Brentford win 40%.Coventry win 35%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 17%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Brentford win 40%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 21%.The table says 16th vs. 6th, but the win chances are 35% and 40%.
Crystal Palace v AFC Bournemouth
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace v
Forecast: Bournemouth favored. Crystal Palace win 25%, draw 24%, Bournemouth win 51%.Crystal Palace win 25%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 11%.Draw 24%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Bournemouth win 51%Most likely 1–2 (10%). By 2+ goals 30%.Bournemouth is 4 points out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 31%, a loss to 18%.
Fulham v Arsenal
Forecast: Arsenal favored. Fulham win 18%, draw 26%, Arsenal win 56%.Fulham win 18%Most likely 1–0 (6%). By 2+ goals 6%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 9%.Arsenal win 56%Most likely 0–1 (13%). By 2+ goals 31%.A win cuts Fulham's chances of going down to 13%; a loss raises them to 24%.
Manchester United v Sunderland
Forecast: Man United favored. Man United win 54%, draw 24%, Sunderland win 22%.Man United win 54%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 31%.Draw 24%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Sunderland win 22%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 8%.Man United is 9 points out with 29 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest
Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest
Forecast: Newcastle favored. Newcastle win 44%, draw 26%, Nott'm Forest win 30%.Newcastle win 44%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 23%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Nott'm Forest win 30%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 13%.Newcastle is 5 points out with 30 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
Aston Villa v Liverpool
Forecast: Liverpool favored. Aston Villa win 34%, draw 26%, Liverpool win 40%.Aston Villa win 34%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 16%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Liverpool win 40%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 20%.Liverpool is 1 point out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 56%, a loss drops them to 41%.
Ipswich Town v Chelsea
Forecast: Chelsea favored. Ipswich win 31%, draw 22%, Chelsea win 47%.Ipswich win 31%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 15%.Draw 22%Most likely 1–1 (8%). Scoreless 3%.Chelsea win 47%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 28%.Chelsea is 1 point clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 33%, a loss to 21%.
High stakesStakes 29 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.
Friday
Leeds United v Everton
Forecast: Leeds favored. Leeds win 46%, draw 28%, Everton win 26%.Leeds win 46%Most likely 1–0 (11%). By 2+ goals 23%.Draw 28%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 9%.Everton win 26%Most likely 0–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 10%.
Saturday
Brighton & Hove Albion v Manchester United
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton v
Forecast: Brighton favored. Brighton win 53%, draw 23%, Man United win 24%.Brighton win 53%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 31%.Draw 23%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 5%.Man United win 24%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 10%.Brighton is 4 points clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 82%, a loss to 72%.
Arsenal v Ipswich Town
Forecast: Arsenal favored. Arsenal win 77%, draw 15%, Ipswich win 8%.Arsenal win 77%Most likely 2–0 (11%). By 2+ goals 57%.Draw 15%Most likely 1–1 (7%). Scoreless 3%.Ipswich win 8%Most likely 1–2 (3%). By 2+ goals 2%.A win cuts Ipswich's chances of going down to 22%; a loss raises them to 38%.
Brentford v Crystal Palace
Forecast: Brentford favored. Brentford win 60%, draw 21%, Crystal Palace win 19%.Brentford win 60%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 39%.Draw 21%Most likely 1–1 (9%). Scoreless 4%.Crystal Palace win 19%Most likely 1–2 (5%). By 2+ goals 8%.Brentford is 2 points out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 19%, a loss drops them to 9%.
Liverpool v Coventry City
Forecast: Liverpool favored. Liverpool win 59%, draw 22%, Coventry win 19%.Liverpool win 59%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 37%.Draw 22%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 5%.Coventry win 19%Most likely 1–2 (5%). By 2+ goals 7%.Liverpool is 1 point out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 53%, a loss drops them to 40%.
Nottingham Forest v Fulham
Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest v
Forecast: Nott'm Forest favored. Nott'm Forest win 42%, draw 28%, Fulham win 30%.Nott'm Forest win 42%Most likely 1–0 (10%). By 2+ goals 20%.Draw 28%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 9%.Fulham win 30%Most likely 0–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 12%.Nott'm Forest is the favorite despite sitting 4 places below Fulham.
Sunderland v Hull City
Forecast: Sunderland favored. Sunderland win 41%, draw 30%, Hull win 29%.Sunderland win 41%Most likely 1–0 (11%). By 2+ goals 19%.Draw 30%Most likely 1–1 (14%). Scoreless 10%.Hull win 29%Most likely 0–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 12%.Both need this to stay up; a win cuts Sunderland's chances of going down to 47%, Hull's to 21%.
High stakesStakes 36 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.AFC Bournemouth v Aston Villa
Forecast: Bournemouth favored. Bournemouth win 52%, draw 24%, Aston Villa win 24%.Bournemouth win 52%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 30%.Draw 24%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 6%.Aston Villa win 24%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 10%.Bournemouth is 4 points out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 31%, a loss to 18%.
Sunday
Chelsea v Newcastle United
Forecast: Chelsea favored. Chelsea win 53%, draw 22%, Newcastle win 25%.Chelsea win 53%Most likely 2–1 (9%). By 2+ goals 32%.Draw 22%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 4%.Newcastle win 25%Most likely 1–2 (6%). By 2+ goals 11%.Chelsea is 1 point clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 33%, a loss to 20%.
Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur
Forecast: Man City favored. Man City win 60%, draw 22%, Tottenham win 18%.Man City win 60%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 37%.Draw 22%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 5%.Tottenham win 18%Most likely 1–2 (5%). By 2+ goals 7%.