Premier League matches
Dec 21–27
Saturday
Aston Villa v Leeds United
Forecast: Aston Villa favored. Aston Villa win 43%, draw 27%, Leeds win 30%.Aston Villa win 43%Most likely 1–0 (9%). By 2+ goals 21%.Draw 27%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 8%.Leeds win 30%Most likely 0–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 13%.Everton v Sunderland
Forecast: Everton favored. Everton win 45%, draw 28%, Sunderland win 27%.Everton win 45%Most likely 1–0 (11%). By 2+ goals 23%.Draw 28%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 9%.Sunderland win 27%Most likely 0–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 11%.Both need this to stay up; a win cuts Everton's chances of going down to 10%, Sunderland's to 46%.
Fulham v Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton
Forecast: Brighton favored. Fulham win 29%, draw 26%, Brighton win 45%.Fulham win 29%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 12%.Draw 26%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 7%.Brighton win 45%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 23%.Brighton is 4 points clear of the top four line; a win lifts its chances to 84%, a loss to 73%.
Ipswich Town v Brentford
Forecast: Brentford favored. Ipswich win 31%, draw 22%, Brentford win 47%.Ipswich win 31%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 16%.Draw 22%Most likely 1–1 (9%). Scoreless 3%.Brentford win 47%Most likely 1–2 (8%). By 2+ goals 27%.3.7 goals expected, 26% more than an average match; Brentford is 2 points out with 29 to play.
High scoring26% more goals than an average match, top 10% of past matches rated as far ahead.Tottenham Hotspur v AFC Bournemouth
Forecast: Bournemouth favored. Tottenham win 33%, draw 27%, Bournemouth win 40%.Tottenham win 33%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 15%.Draw 27%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 7%.Bournemouth win 40%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 20%.Bournemouth is 4 points out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 32%, a loss to 19%.
Hull City v Liverpool
Forecast: Liverpool favored. Hull win 25%, draw 27%, Liverpool win 48%.Hull win 25%Most likely 1–0 (7%). By 2+ goals 10%.Draw 27%Most likely 1–1 (13%). Scoreless 8%.Liverpool win 48%Most likely 0–1 (11%). By 2+ goals 25%.Liverpool is 1 point out with 29 to play; a win lifts its chances to 55%, a loss drops them to 40%.
High stakesStakes 29 of 100, top 15% of past matches rated as far ahead.Newcastle United v Manchester City
Forecast: Man City favored. Newcastle win 27%, draw 24%, Man City win 49%.Newcastle win 27%Most likely 2–1 (7%). By 2+ goals 12%.Draw 24%Most likely 1–1 (11%). Scoreless 4%.Man City win 49%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 28%.
Sunday
Coventry City v Chelsea
Forecast: Chelsea favored. Coventry win 35%, draw 24%, Chelsea win 41%.Coventry win 35%Most likely 2–1 (8%). By 2+ goals 17%.Draw 24%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 4%.Chelsea win 41%Most likely 1–2 (9%). By 2+ goals 22%.The table says 16th vs. 4th, but the win chances are 35% and 41%.
Manchester United v Nottingham Forest
Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest
Forecast: Man United favored. Man United win 49%, draw 25%, Nott'm Forest win 26%.Man United win 49%Most likely 2–1 (10%). By 2+ goals 27%.Draw 25%Most likely 1–1 (12%). Scoreless 6%.Nott'm Forest win 26%Most likely 1–2 (7%). By 2+ goals 11%.Man United is 9 points out with 29 to play; a loss drops its chances to 1%.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace v
Forecast: Arsenal favored. Crystal Palace win 14%, draw 21%, Arsenal win 65%.Crystal Palace win 14%Most likely 2–1 (4%). By 2+ goals 5%.Draw 21%Most likely 1–1 (10%). Scoreless 6%.Arsenal win 65%Most likely 0–2 (11%). By 2+ goals 41%.A win cuts Crystal Palace's chances of going down to 47%; a loss raises them to 64%.
